in the world. Then, we shall present a number of the most interesting observations. We will attempt to explain these
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infections in the world during that time period. (In fact, our measure will lag the actual figure somewhat, since incidents are not always discovered immediately.)
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Briefly, the location and date of each virus incident is recorded, along with the number of infected PCs and diskettes and the identity of the virus. From these statistics, we obtain more than just an understanding of the virus problem within our sample population: we also can infer several aspects of the virus problem worldwide. Figure 1 illustrates how this is possible.
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We have learned much about the extent of the PC-DOS virus problem by collecting virus incident statistics from a fixed, well-monitored sample population of several
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which in turn depends on the extent to which people notice the virus, due to its behavior or through the use of anti-virus software. As we shall see, the birth and death rates also depend critically on the nature of the world's computing environment.
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all viruses. The use of anti-virus software does not account for the difference in prevalence between boot infectors and file infectors. To find the solution to this mystery, we look once again at changes in the computing environment, rather than events associated with the anti-virus industry. The biggest change in the PC computing environment over the past several years has been the change from the use of native DOS to the use of Windows 3.0 and 3.1. Windows 3.0 was released in 1990, and
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the virus levels off in prevalence, reaching an equilibrium between spreading and being eliminated. Figure 7 illustrates the typical behavior of a system above the epidemic threshold.
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Index of trojan horse picture