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Our models are purposefully simple, in an attempt to understand the most important aspects of global virus spread. In these models, a system is either infected or not. If it is infected, there is some probability each day that it will have an infectious contact with some other system in the world, typically via exchange of floppy diskettes or software exchange over a network. This is called the birth rate of the virus.
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Not all of the news is good, however. Viruses can be written for 32-bit operating systems, and the first few such crude viruses have already appeared [17]. These operating systems offer new facilities that viruses can use to both hide and spread. The transition to these newer operating systems will change the virus problem, perhaps significantly, but it will not eliminate it.
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How Viruses Spread Over the past several years, we have constucted theoretical models of how computer viruses spread in a population, and compared them against the results of an ongoing study of actual virus incidents [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6].
inseq2e56
How Viruses Spread Over the past several years, we have constucted theoretical models of how computer viruses spread in a population, and compared them against the results of an ongoing study of actual virus incidents [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6].
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permeability of the boundary, a computer virus will sooner or later make its way into the organization. This marks the beginning of a virus incident. Assuming that the permeability of the boundary remains constant, the number of virus incidents per unit time per machine within the set of organizations that makes up our sample population should be proportional to the number of computer virus
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All of our models show the same basic characteristics of virus spread. One fundamental insight is that there is an epidemic threshold above which a virus may spread, and below which it cannot. If the birth rate of a virus is greater than its death rate, the virus has a chance to spread successfully, although it may die out before it spreads much. If the virus does manage to get a foothold, it will start to rise slowly in prevalence.
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Not all of the news is good, however. Viruses can be written for 32-bit operating systems, and the first few such crude viruses have already appeared [17]. These operating systems offer new facilities that viruses can use to both hide and spread. The transition to these newer operating systems will change the virus problem, perhaps significantly, but it will not eliminate it.
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iru8192byte
In environments in which OS/2 predominates over DOS, we would expect this to lead to a decline in prevalence of all current DOS viruses.
Index of Cool Fake Viruses